The Grjotagja fault near Lake Myvatn (Iceland, 2009). © BRGM - Frederick Gal

Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Geosciences

09.26.2017
BRGM will host the symposium entitled "Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Geosciences", on January from 15th to 17th 2018 at BRGM in Orléans (France).

UQ in geosciences

Uncertainty Quantification

Modelling activities are steadily increasing in all disciplines of geosciences, ranging from natural resources exploitation to environmental and natural hazard assessments. Advances in research and computing makes it possible to run more complex and more accurate computational models such as high-fidelity full process-based numerical models  It provides accurate simulations of physical processes which are, in return, more costly to evaluate and validate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is now widely used in diverse aspects of the modelling  (e.g. model development, calibration and validation, decision-making, etc.) and is inherent to many disciplines encountered in computational geosciences including earthquake, fluvial or coastal flood, landslides, volcanoes, underground water resources, mineral exploitation, etc.. Despite the ever-increasing computing power, a proper UQ is still a major challenge. Over the last years, a large variety of methodological developments have been proposed for in order to improve confidence in simulation results, to help decision-making under uncertainty, and to facilitate communication to stakeholders. It has led to the integration of ideas from multiple communities: mathematics, statistics, geology, geophysics, geography, climatology, hydrology, etc.

The objective of the symposium is to bring together and to promote interchange between a diverse community of research scientists, students, practitioners and stakeholders concerned with this complex and inter-disciplinary topic. The symposium will provide a forum for the exchange of experiences / feedbacks and new fruitful perspectives for the coming years on UQ in Computational Geosciences through thematic sessions and panel discussions. This symposium will be organized for 2 days with a special focus on the applicability and on the successes (or failures) of UQ methods applied to four domains of Geosciences, namely:

  1. UQ applied to natural risks related to geological processes
  2. UQ applied to hydro-meteorological processes
  3. UQ applied to natural resources (water and mineral) exploration and exploitation
  4. Methods and theoretical developments for UQ

Invited speakers (preliminary)

  • Prof. Ackerer P., Strasbourg university, France
  • Prof. Franchin P., Roma university, Italy
  • Prof. Gamboa F., IMT, Toulouse university, France
  • Prof. Wellmann F., RWTH Aachen University, Germany
  • Prof. Menendez M., Cantabria university, Spain
  • Prof. Sudret B., ETZ Zürich, Switzerland
  • Prof. Mangeney A., University Paris Diderot, France
  • Dr. Duluc C.-M., IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
  • Dr. Gesret A., Mines ParisTech, Fontainebleau, France
  • Dr. Iooss B., EdF, Chatou, France
  • Dr. Le Maitre O., LIMSI, Paris-Saclay university, France
  • Dr. Moncoulon D., CCR, Paris, France
  • Dr. Zentner I., EdF, Saclay, France

Program

Monday, January 15th 2018

1 pm - 1:45 pm: Registration

1:45 pm - 14 pm: Welcome

Session 1 (2 pm): UQ applied to natural resources (water and mineral) exploration and exploitation

  • F. Wellman (RWTH Aachen University): Model-Based Machine Learning and Uncertainly Quantification in Geomodelling
  • P. Ackerer (Uni. Strasbourg): Uncertainties in hydrogeology modelling and potential impacts on models predictions
  • A. Gesret (Mines ParisTech): Uncertainty estimation by probalistic seismic tomography
  • G. Courriaux (BRGM): Comparisons from multiple realizations of a geological model: Implication for uncertainty factors identification

5:10 pm - 6:45 pm: Poster session, during which the traditional French “Galette des rois” will be served

Tuesday, January 16th 2018

Session 2 (9 am): UQ applied to natural risks related to geological processes – chaired by P. Gehl (BRGM)

  • I. Zentner (EDF): Stochastic representation of soil variability and application in soil-structure interaction analysis
  • P. Franchin (uni. Roma): Uncertainty modelling in seismic risk assessment at the urban/regional scale
  • B. Sudret (ETHZ): Surrogate models for uncertain dynamical systems: applications to earthquake engineering
  • A. Mangeney (IPGP): Limits of numerical models used to simulate natural landslides: confrontation with field observation and laboratory experiments
  • A. Benaïchouche (BRGM): Identifying parametric controls and dependencies using conditional local variance: Application to seismic hazard assessments

12:50 pm: Lunch (free of charge)

Session 3 (2 pm): UQ applied to hydro-meteorological processes – chaired by D. Idier (BRGM)

  • M. Menendez (uni Cantabria): Cascade of uncertainties to estimate coastal impacts
  • D. Moncoulon (CCR): Modelling flood insured losses: an uncertainty propagation from hazard to damages
  • C.-M. Duluc (IRSN): Hydrometeorological hazards assessment: practices in nuclear safety field and scientific challenges
  • J. Rohmer (BRGM): Boosting coastal flooding early-warning systems using metamodels

7 pm - 8:30 pm: Cocktail (free of charge) – Hôtel Dupanloup
8:30 pm - 10 pm: Seminar by Anne Mangeney (IPGP) – Mardi de la Science - Hôtel Dupanloup

Wednesday, January 17th 2018

Session 4 (9 am): Methods and theoretical developments for UQ – chaired by B. Sudret (ETHZ)

  • F. Gamboa (IMT Toulouse): Sensitivity analysis: from variance analysis to Cramér Von Mises statistics
  • B. Iooss (EDF): Large dimension and dependence of inputs in global sensitivity analysis
  • O. Le Maitre (LIMSI): Reduction Methods for Uncertainty Quantification and Bayesian Inference in Geosciences
  • P. Sochala (BRGM): Construction of functional surrogates for uncertain geosciences applications

12:10 pm - 1 pm: Wrap-up and closing Statements

Organizing and scientific committee

  • Prof. Bazargan-Sabet B., BRGM & University of Lorraine, Mines de Nancy, Orléans, France
  • Prof. Cordier S., University of Orléans, MAPMO, Orléans, France
  • Mrs. Loschetter A., BRGM, Orléans, France
  • Mr. Manceau J.-C., BRGM, Orléans, France
  • Dr. Rohmer J., BRGM, Orléans, France
  • Dr. Sochala P., BRGM, Orléans, France

DATES AND LOCATION

Meeting sessions on 15th (afternoon), 16th (all day), and 17th (morning) January, 2018

BRGM (Auditorium)

3 avenue Claude-Guillemin, Orléans, France

TO FIND OUT MORE

Attendance to this symposium is free of charge, with the possibility to present a poster

Download the program

Registration form (free of charge) - deadline December 3rd

ACCOMODATION

Some Orléans city-centre hotels and access map to BRGM

BRGM - 3 avenue Claude-Guillemin - BP 36009 45060 Orléans Cedex 2 - France Tel.: +33 (0)2 38 64 34 34